33.

Use of the SSP-RCP scenario framework in climate impact analysis, including avoided impacts


Organizers: Brian O'Neill (University of Denver), Timothy R. Carter (Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)), Kristie L. Ebi (University of Washington)

research SESSION

Future climate and societal conditions will change climate-related hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities, thereby affecting the level of ambition needed to prepare for and manage climate change risks. Therefore, scenarios of climate and societal change play a key role in projecting risks, and the scenario framework provided by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) is increasingly being adopted for this purpose. This session welcomes submissions that apply the SSP-RCP framework to risk and impact analyses, evaluate it for its suitability for such analyses, or both. Applications at scales from the local to global, and for any sector (or multiple sectors) are appropriate. Methodological analyses of interest include those that demonstrate how the SSP-RCP framework facilitated and/or enhanced impact analyses, challenges or limitations of using the framework, and needed future directions of the framework to improve projections.   

Of particular interest are submissions using or testing the framework for its originally anticipated uses, including (but not limited to): evaluating impacts avoided at lower (compared to higher) levels of climate change and/or of adaptation, identifying the role of land use in the consistency between SSP-RCP combinations, and examining the sensitivity of vulnerabilities, exposure, impacts, or adaptation to alternative societal or climate conditions. Analyses either of climate system or human dimensions are appropriate; interdisciplinary analyses involving combinations of the climate system, biophysical impacts and societal aspects are especially relevant.