Cost of climate change impact and the use of scenarios

Organizers: Shinichiro Fujimori (NIES and Kyoto University), Juan-Carlos Ciscar (JRC)


2:30 PM-2:45 PM
What level of public investments in irrigation is needed to make the SDGs achievable?
Amanda Palazzo, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

2:45 PM-3:00 PM
Economic implications of heat-induced reductions in workability in RCP-SSP future pathways
Anton Orlov, Center for International Climate Research (CICERO )  

3:00 PM-3:15 PM
Assessing climate economic impacts from sectoral direct damages, the JRC PESETA experience
Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Joint Research Center, European Commission   

3:15 PM-3:30 PM
Emulators to explore economic impact of climate change under numerous scenario combinations
Jun'ya Takakura, National Institute for Environmental Studies

3:30 PM-3:45 PM
Economic interactions between climate change and outdoor air pollution
Rob Dellink, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

3:45 PM-4:15 PM

This session collects speakers who represent researches working on climate change impact economics. The cost of climate change mitigation has been continuously investigated by so-called integrated assessment models, which are reported in working group III of IPCC Fifth Assessment reports (AR5) as well. Meanwhile, the cost of climate change impact (or damage) is also reported in AR5 but the number of studies is limited compared to those of mitigation cost. More importantly, the studies and approaches are outdated in AR5. These things are more crucial than before not only for the research community but also policy making, for example in the debate of social cost of carbon.
Recently, there are several types of new studies that have examined the climate change impact cost. For example, Burke et al.(2018) uses the (or an) econometric method and explore the impacts of 1.5 and 2 °C world. Dellink et al. (2017) estimates multi sectoral impacts by a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Takakura et al. adopted CGE and clarified the (or a) labor productivity loss effect associated with temperature change. Some of them have tried to incorporate so-called SSP/RCP scenario framework which is relevant to this meeting. Thus, this session intends to make a space for the relevant researchers to present the latest work and discuss the use of climate and socioeconomic scenarios, and further research directions. This should be also the benefit for the forthcoming IPCC AR6. Basically our primarily target is to discuss global estimates and its methodology, but it does not mean regional or local studies are exclusive. Any sectoral coverage is welcome, but multi-sectoral or total macro estimates are preferable.