Extending the SSPs across space and time: Multi-scale scenario development practices (Session II: Exploring Geographic Contexts)


Organizers: Kasper Kok (University of Wageningen), Benjamin Preston (RAND)

research SESSION

2:30 PM-2:45 PM
Using the SSPs to Assess Future Transnational Climate Risks: A Case Study in Kenya
Henrik Carlsen, Stockholm Environment Institute  

2:45 PM-3:00 PM
Protocol-based development of storylines for future European agriculture: Eur-Agri-SSPs

Hermine Mitter, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna

3:00 PM-3:15 PM
New integrated scenarios for climate change research in Finland
Timothy Carter, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)    

3:15 PM-3:30 PM
New European socio-economic scenarios for climate change research: Operationalising concepts to extend the Shared Socio-economic Pathways 
Kasper Kok, Wageningen University and Research    

3:30 PM-3:45 PM
AgMIP Scenarios and Simulation Design for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change Impacts on Food Systems and Markets
Hermann Lotze-Campen, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

3:45 PM-4:15 PM
Discussion

Scenarios are being developed at all different scales, from global to small sub-national regions, and for a variety of applications. A crucial question is how these scenarios relate to each other. One important method to increase the connectedness between scenarios at different scales is through the use of multi-scale scenario development methods. There are a variety of different choices including top-down versus bottom-up, post-hoc mapping or windtunneling, quantitative versus qualitative, participatory or expert. Each is associated with its own trade-offs with respect to level of effort, internal consistency, and relevance to stakeholder needs and interests. This session therefore intends to bring together different viewpoints on how multi-scale scenarios can be developed, with a particular focus on using  the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as a common framework for scenario development.
Importance and relevance to meeting:
To advance the state-of-the-art in using the SSPs as a framework for scenario development across space and time, a closer interaction with the scenario practitioners community is needed. Improving multi-scale scenario development methods is crucial to improving global and regional scenarios, and is at the heart of the notion to identify opportunities for synergies.
Examples of presentations could include (but are not limited to):
- Conceptual papers on multi-scale methods
- Co-production, participatory methods to develop multi-scale scenarios with stakeholders
- Applying novel structural methods, such as morphological analysis, Cross Impact Balances, Factors-Actors-Sectors etc.
Proposed organisation of session:
Three introductory speakers to set the stage, including the global SSPs and intention to extend, followed by 2-3 additional presentations, with time reserved for synthesis.