12.

AgMIP Scenario Approaches and Stakeholder Engagement across Disciplines and Scales


Organizer: Cynthia Rosenzweig (NASA/GISS), Keith Wiebe (IFPRI)

RESEARCH SESSION

In the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA), we build on AgMIP’s global and regional body of work by coordinating major modeling initiatives across disciplines and scales through the use of unified climate, socioeconomic and agronomic assumptions. Such explicit disciplinary and scale interactions enable improvements in simulated processes, such as improved crop yield projections for embedding in economics models, and validation for results from aggregated global models that may be interpreted meaningfully for the regions where agriculture represents a significant share of the economy. A multiyear process has created a conceptual framework for assessing global- and regional scale modeling of crops, livestock and economics across major agricultural regions worldwide. This CGRA framework is designed to facilitate the production of consistent multi-model, multidiscipline and multiscale assessments of agricultural and food security impacts, including robust characterizations of uncertainty and risk. The session will be explicitly focused on the use of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to facilitate coordinated global and regional assessments. The session will provide an opportunity for various AgMIP participants to reflect on past experience from climate, crop, and economic modeling perspectives to help improve the use of SSPs and RCPs in the analysis of future scenarios for the agricultural sector. This workshop session will be organized as a gathering of practitioners in the modeling of the future of the agricultural sector, with participants invited to share past experiences and interests in future improvements with the SSP-RCP scenario framework. The bulk of the workshop will focus on a group discussion of how to improve the articulation of the SSP-RCP framework with modeling the future of the agricultural sector.

Invited speakers will be:

Hermann Lotze-Campen – AgMIP Executive Committee Member and Co-Lead of the AgMIP Global Economics Team

Alex Ruane – AgMIP Science Coordinator and Co-Lead of the AgMIP Climate Team