Scenarios for the Future Ocean

Organizers: Tyler Eddy (University of South Carolina), Jörn Schmidt (University of Kiel), Alan Haynie (NOAA), John Pinnegar (CEFAS)


Formal methods and tools for scenario analysis are used in support of ecosystem-based management of natural resources, including marine fisheries. In addition, there is a growing requirement for these methods and tools to enable the evaluation of alternative decision rules that fully encompass (i) the dynamics of marine social-ecological systems and transition phases associated with management implementation, and (ii) multiple political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental objectives of management.  To date, most socio-economic scenarios have been developed in the context of the IPCC and are focussed on land-based activities. However, coupling ocean and coastal systems is attracting growing attention and debate, demonstrating that this is an important research area. While many studies focus on the exploration of possible futures, there is also a need to develop normative scenarios, which consider objectives for the management of ocean uses, and possible pathways for these objectives to be met in the future. This session will focus on the presentation and discussion of recent advances and key challenges in scenario development for ocean and coastal systems. We invite papers describing approaches to develop future trajectories of change in some or all of the elements of the “PESTLE” approach (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental) needed to project bioeconomic consequences of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture.  Scenario approaches can be at local, regional, and global scales and of varying time horizons.  They can include ecosystem-based management and fisheries strategies, integrated ecosystem assessments or biodiversity scenarios, such as those being developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystems Services (IPBES). We also encourage approaches that connect land and sea as well as approaches that would be relevant to model intercomparison projects (MIPs), such as CMIP, ISIMIP, and Fish-MIP.
Proposed organization of session (1h45min): 5 minutes of introduction by organizers and 5 talks of 20 minutes each.