Scenarios as service


Organizers: Robert Lempert (RAND), Henrik Carlsen (Stockholm Environment Institute), Celine Guivarch (CIRED)

RESEARCH SESSION

2:30-2:35 PM
Introduction

2:35-2:50 PM
Are Interactive Web-Tools with Large Scenario Databases Worth the Effort? An Experimental Study with Non-Experts
Evelina Trutnevyte, University of Geneva

2:50-3:05 PM
Cross-sectoral adaptation using RCP/SSP-based quantitative robustness analysis
Henrik Carlsen, Stockholm Environment Institute

3:05-3:20 PM
Untangling Consequential Futures: Discovering Regional and Global Change Scenarios
Jonathan Lamontagne, Tufts University

3:20-3:35 PM
Learning from interactive scenarios for more effective SDG planning
Steve Arquitt, Millennium Institute

3:35-4:15 PM
Panel Discussion

This session explores new quantitative methods for extracting insights from large scenario ensembles that might build on the RPCs and SSPs to provide an even richer set of policy-relevant information.  The decision support literature distinguishes between products and services.  The former includes tangible deliverables, such as the RPCs and SSPS, while the latter include interactions that enable better use of decision relevant information.  The so-called ‘scenarios as service’ concept envisions providing large databases and decision tools to allow users to craft scenarios fit for purpose while maintaining consistency and comparability across users provided by the current ‘scenarios as products.’ The session discusses conceptual and methodological approaches, as well as lessons learned from empirical testing of how scenarios are used in practice by the expert and non-expert stakeholders. In order to foster learning across multiple research communities, case studies are drawn from several fields, including climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation, integrated assessment modelling, energy transition, and others.