Developing the SSPs: Taking Stock of Successes, Areas to Improve for the Future

Organizers: Eric Kemp-Benedict (Stockholm Environment Institute), Jonathan Lamontagne (Tufts University)


When the architecture for the current round of climate scenarios was being developed, the architects looked back to the SRES exercise. They asked what lessons they could draw from the SRES experience and took those lessons into account. In this session we do the same with the SSPs, considering both the further development of the SSPs themselves and global climate scenario development more broadly.

In the spirit of a friendly critique, each of the panelists will give a brief personal answer to the question, “What have the SSPs done well, and what can we do to develop them further?” The presentations will then be followed by a general discussion.

The session will begin with a presentation from Kasper Kok to set the stage on what the SSPs were trying to achieve, and what we can learn from global and regional use cases. Then Vanessa Schweizer will discuss how consistency checks using Cross-Impact Balances could contribute to the SRES and SSP exercises. Other panelists will discuss methods for improving the consistency, coverage, diversity, and plausibility of climate scenarios.