Downscaling and enriching the RCP-SSP scenario framework as a basis for co-creating integrated and transformative solutions to high-end climate change


Organizer: Paula Harrison (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, UK), Timothy Carter (Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE))

research SESSION

MONDAY - Sie Complex Room 1150

1:45-2:00 PM
Co-creating multi-scale RCP-SSP scenarios for informing transformative solutions to high-end climate change: Session Introduction
Paula Harrison, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

2:00-2:15 PM
Development of integrated high-end scenarios for Europe 
Kasper Kok, Wageningen University & Research

2:15-2:30 PM
Analysing European Shared Socio-economic Pathways across scales: the case of SSP5 (fossil-fueled development)
Simona Pedde, Wageningen University & Research

2:30-2:45 PM
Integrated modelling of climate change impacts and trade-offs in Europe for the RCP-SSP scenarios
Mark Rounsevell, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

2:45-3:00 PM
Co-creation of adaptation, mitigation and transformation pathways in the context of multi-scale RCP-SSP scenarios
László Pintér, Central European University

3:00-3:30 PM
Panel Discussion

This session will present methods and findings from case studies that have downscaled and integrated high-end climate (based on the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and socio-economic scenarios (based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) across multiple scales. It will discuss how such multi-scale integrated scenarios can be used to support decision-makers in assessing adaptation, mitigation and transformative strategies for dealing with high-end climate change (where the global mean annual temperature increase is above 2oC and could rise as high as 4-6oC). The session includes two invited speakers from the IMPRESSIONS project (www.impressions-project.eu), which has co-created an integrated set of multi-scale, high-end climate and socio-economic scenarios with stakeholders in participatory workshops. The scenarios were used to explore potential impacts and vulnerabilities across sectors, and as the basis for co-developing adaptation and mitigation pathways that provide transformative solutions to these uncertain, but potentially high-risk, scenarios of the future. We welcome submissions of abstracts from other projects or case studies that have downscaled and enriched the RCP-SSP scenario framework (both climate and socio-economic information) within the context of multi-scale and multi-sector impact and adaptation assessment for high-end climate change.