Extending the SSPs across space and time: Multi-scale scenario development practices (Session I: Advances in Methods Development)


Organizers: Kasper Kok (University of Wageningen), Benjamin Preston (RAND)

research SESSION

TUESDAY - Maglione Hall (Sie Complex Fifth Floor)

11:15 AM-11:30 AM
Matching existing scenario sets to extend the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Guillaume Rohat, University of Geneva

11:30 AM-11:45 AM
Developing multiscale energy scenarios using linked cross-impact balance analysis
Jude Herijadi Kurniawan, University of Waterloo

11:45 AM-12:00 PM
Developing local socioeconomic scenarios using a multi-scale co-production approach
Lena Reimann, University of Kiel and CUNY

12:00 PM-12:15 PM
Developing SSP extensions for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies
Presentation
Benjamin Preston, RAND Corporation

12:15 PM-12:30 PM
Bridging the gap across scales in scenario planning: Co-designing water-energy-land visions and pathways in transboundary basins facing global challenges
Barbara Willaarts, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

12:30 PM-12:45 PM
Discussion

Scenarios are being developed at all different scales, from global to small sub-national regions, and for a variety of applications. A crucial question is how these scenarios relate to each other. One important method to increase the connectedness between scenarios at different scales is through the use of multi-scale scenario development methods. There are a variety of different choices including top-down versus bottom-up, post-hoc mapping or windtunneling, quantitative versus qualitative, participatory or expert. Each is associated with its own trade-offs with respect to level of effort, internal consistency, and relevance to stakeholder needs and interests. This session therefore intends to bring together different viewpoints on how multi-scale scenarios can be developed, with a particular focus on using  the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as a common framework for scenario development.
Importance and relevance to meeting:
To advance the state-of-the-art in using the SSPs as a framework for scenario development across space and time, a closer interaction with the scenario practitioners community is needed. Improving multi-scale scenario development methods is crucial to improving global and regional scenarios, and is at the heart of the notion to identify opportunities for synergies.
Examples of presentations could include (but are not limited to):
- Conceptual papers on multi-scale methods
- Co-production, participatory methods to develop multi-scale scenarios with stakeholders
- Applying novel structural methods, such as morphological analysis, Cross Impact Balances, Factors-Actors-Sectors etc.
Proposed organisation of session:
Three introductory speakers to set the stage, including the global SSPs and intention to extend, followed by 2-3 additional presentations, with time reserved for synthesis.