Sub-national scenarios for integrated modeling and analyses


Organizer: Gokul Iyer (PNNL)

research SESSION

TUESDAY - Joy Burns Center 117

4:45 PM-5:00 PM
A Framework for Sub-national Multi-sector Dynamics Scenarios
Gokul Iyer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

5:00 PM-5:15 PM
Challenges in Developing Multi-scale, Long-term Economic Scenarios

Jae Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL/University of Maryland

5:15 PM-5:30 PM
Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways in Japan: linking local scenarios and global context
He Chen, National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan

5:30 PM-5:45 PM
Scenario development in the sub-national context: regional heterogeneity and transition pathways in China
Sha Yu, Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL

5:45 PM- 6:00 PM
Finding integrated SDG pathways for the Indus River Basin
Simon Parkinson, University of Victoria

6:00 PM-6:30 PM
Discussion

Over the past decade, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have been developed to facilitate climate change impact, mitigation, adaptation, and vulnerability studies across a number of research communities. However, because of their global and decadal outlooks, the applicability of these storylines for studies focused on multi-sector interactions at finer spatial and temporal scales is unclear. This session focuses on research efforts directed toward developing scenario frameworks to inform decision-making and modeling studies that cut across spatial and temporal scales, including efforts that are directed toward sub-national assessments and integration of multi-model, multi-scale and multi-sector assessments. The session also invites abstracts based on efforts to “down-scale” existing scenarios such as the SSPs, RCPs, or other frameworks for more regional and national contexts or applications of such frameworks at multiple spatial and temporal scales. We also welcome submissions of related scenarios research beyond the United States context.

The session will comprise of 4 speakers of which one will be invited. The invited speaker is currently working on developing sub-national scenarios for the U.S. energy-water-land modeling efforts. The remaining three speakers will comprise of a mix of researchers developing sub-national scenarios, not only in the context of the U.S. but also internationally to encourage a healthy dialogue among participants about the similarities and differences in the scenario development process.  Each speaker will be allotted 20 minutes (with Q&A) amounting to a total of 80 minutes.