Results from CMIP6 ScenarioMIP and other MIPs building on its experiments

Organizers: Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR), Jason Lowe (UK MetOffice), Pierre Friedlingstein (University of Exeter)

research SESSION

Modeling centers around the world have signed up to perform the experiments proposed by ScenarioMIP, whose experimental design prescribes a new set of future forcing scenarios based on the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways and spanning a wide range of resulting radiative forcings. These experiments will constitute the basis for a large portion of the IPCC AR6 assessment of future climate changes, and a critical input for analysis of impacts and related adaptation and mitigation options. In addition, several other MIPs (LUMIP, AerchemMIP, C4MIP) have specified in their experimental design simulations that explicitly build on some of the scenarios, with variations and sensitivity experiments intended to explore the role of specific forcings and feedbacks.
This session aims at providing a view of the first analyses of changes in the physical climate system from the CMIP6 models running future scenarios within ScenarioMIP and any other related MIP (the above list not being exclusive). We hope to see analysis in terms of within scenario changes and between scenarios “avoided impacts”. Analyses of physical climate metrics relevant for impacts on human and natural systems would be welcome. Comparison of CMIP6 results with existing CMIP5 outcomes, especially for scenarios that have been chosen by ScenarioMIP to provide continuity across CMIP phases would also be considered illuminating.