The role of short-lived climate forcers in future scenarios


Organizers: Jan Fuglestvedt (CICERO), Detlef van Vuuren (PBL)

research SESSION

Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) - such as aerosols (and their precursors), HFCs, CH₄ and ozone precursors - have received increased attention during the recent years. They can have significant effects on climate change. It is a group of components with very different atmospheric and climate properties than CO₂, mainly related to lifetimes and sign of radiative forcing but also related to different sources and synergies and trade-offs in possible mitigation strategies. Another important characteristic of some SLCFs is that they are subject to relatively large uncertainties in estimates of their climate effects. The role of SLCFs in mitigation scenarios can be important. Firstly, they can have a strong influence on short-term climate change and air quality, and secondly, their contribution to climate change becomes also visible as impact on the calculated remaining carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2ºC global warming. As a result, the future development of SLCFs, their effects and the implications for mitigation strategies are relevant to all the IPCC Working Groups.

In this context, this session welcomes submissions on:
-What is the current understanding of radiative forcing from present day emissions of SLCF and their precursors, and what are the implications for future effects on (mean and extreme) temperatures and precipitation on global and regional scales
-How may the emissions of SLCFs develop in the future. In this context, we would especially be interested in future emissions and mitigation trajectories of SLCFs in relation to the timing of mitigation efforts and the possible trade-offs between CO₂ and non-CO₂ components
-What are the SLCF mitigation options and abatement costs in IAMs and scenarios, and new insights on advanced emission reductions options
-How can modelling of SLCFs be improved in IAMs given scientific developments from various MIPs
-New insights on the co-benefits of reducing SLCFs in scenarios, for instance, on air quality and effects on health and crops

Invited Speakers:

Bill Collins (Univ of Reading). Tentative title: “On the geophysical knowledge of SLCFs and their role in scenarios.”

Zig Klimont (IIASA): "Future development of Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) and mitigation options"