What is a “good” energy scenario (or not) for use in decision making for climate change mitigation?
Organizers: Claire Copeland (Sussex University, UK), Chris Dent (University of Edinburgh, UK), Mark O’Malley (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA)
Energy scenarios are a tool used to explore future uncertainty and pathways to meeting the sector’s climate change mitigation targets. This session will discuss the appropriateness of scenarios for exploring future uncertainty, how (energy) scenarios should or should not be developed, and how they should be used (or not) in decision making for climate change mitigation.
The session will seek presentations which provide a constructive critique of present energy scenario practice. Example questions that presentations in this session could address: What would scenario development best practice look like for a given purpose? Is the purpose of the scenario study clearly specified? Is there appropriate treatment of uncertainty? Are any conclusions dependent on the choice of scenarios made, and would they be different under an equally good set of scenarios of the same size? Is there a train of logical reasoning from the initial questions to any conclusions drawn or decisions taken?
The methodological discussions will be beneficial to all scenario development and contribute to further development of IPCC scenarios. By addressing scenarios used for decision making, this session will appeal to policy makers and industry as well as researchers.
4 presentations of 20 mins plus general discussion plus a poster session reflecting the topic. The three organisers are from national centres of excellence in Europe and USA, and thus have a wide perspective for considering presentation proposals.
In addition there will be 1 or 2 (max) invited speakers who will provide valuable insights into this topic.