What is a “good” energy scenario (or not) for use in decision making for climate change mitigation?
Organizers: Claire Copeland (Sussex University, UK), Chris Dent (University of Edinburgh, UK), Mark O’Malley (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA)
1:45 PM-2:05 PM
Quantification of the uncertain impacts of a changing and variable climate on a highly weather-driven power system
Carlo Brancucci, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
2:05 PM-2:25 PM
Network analysis in scenario research: Visualizing different perspectives of energy scenarios
Jude Herijadi Kurniawan, University of Waterloo
2:25 PM-2:50 PM
How do energy system models and climate change mitigation scenarios represent disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners
Richard Hanna, Imperial College London
2:50 PM-3:10 PM
Wind energy scenarios for climate change mitigation
Sara C. Pryor, Cornell University
3:10 PM-3:30 PM
Energy scenarios are a tool used to explore future uncertainty and pathways to meeting the sector’s climate change mitigation targets. This session will discuss the appropriateness of scenarios for exploring future uncertainty, how (energy) scenarios should or should not be developed, and how they should be used (or not) in decision making for climate change mitigation.
The session will seek presentations which provide a constructive critique of present energy scenario practice. Example questions that presentations in this session could address: What would scenario development best practice look like for a given purpose? Is the purpose of the scenario study clearly specified? Is there appropriate treatment of uncertainty? Are any conclusions dependent on the choice of scenarios made, and would they be different under an equally good set of scenarios of the same size? Is there a train of logical reasoning from the initial questions to any conclusions drawn or decisions taken?
The methodological discussions will be beneficial to all scenario development and contribute to further development of IPCC scenarios. By addressing scenarios used for decision making, this session will appeal to policy makers and industry as well as researchers.