Scenarios of future Loss and Damage - Attributable Climate Change, Adaptation Capacity, and Residual Risks

Organizers: Carl Friedrich Schleussner (Climate Analytics), Friederike Otto (Oxford University), Raya Muttarak (Wittgenstein Center)


Future Loss and Damage, understood here as impacts of climate change that are not avoided through adaptation at a certain point in time, will be largely determined by the extent of global temperature increase and the capacity to adapt to the climate hazards. Trajectories of socio-economic transformations that countries follow will be instrumental for creating their adaptive capacity. Besides economic indicators, also human capital factors like education and institutional dimensions such as regulatory quality, gender equality, rule of law, control of corruption and political stability are key enablers, or barriers for adaptation. To assess future risks by climate change, however, an understanding of how the time scales of overcoming such barriers compare with the continuing emergence of climate hazards due to anthropogenic climate change is essential. Scenarios of future Loss and Damage are thereby intrinsically linked to both climate as well as socio-economic scenarios and will bring together different communities and approaches to scenario building.

Consequently, we welcome a wide range of contributions from climate detection and attribution and analysis of time scales of emergence of impacts to socio-economic scenario building for adaptive capacity and barriers, as well as approaches to assess loss and damage. We explicitly welcome contributions by the sectoral climate impact community on attribution as well as on sectorial adaptation barriers and scenario development. Wolfgang Lutz has agreed to set the scene for our session with a solicited keynote on “Forecasting societies’ adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model.“